“You Could Say The Ceasefire Has Ceased”: Stocks Fall, Brent Holds At $108 And Traders Give Only 56% Odds That Hormuz Normalises By August
Global markets started the week in a cautious mood, caught between two competing narratives, a war that looks closer to ending and a strait that is still nowhere near open.
According to multiple media sources such as Bloomberg, Fortune, Sunday Guardian and CNBC, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.61 percent on May 6, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.75 percent and the Nasdaq slid 0.94 percent as tech stocks sank and energy markets stayed volatile.
Oil fell for a second consecutive day after Trump posted on Truth Social that “great progress” (ceasefire) had been made toward a final agreement with Iran, with Brent dropping toward $108 a barrel after sliding four percent the previous session, while WTI settled near $100.
Trump confirmed that US efforts to move ships through the Strait of Hormuz under Project Freedom would be paused, but that the naval blockade on Iranian ports would remain firmly in place, putting the possible ceasefire signal on edge.
Oil analyst Rory Johnston put it plainly: “You could say the ceasefire has ceased.” For markets that had tuned out the war to deliver all-time highs on strong earnings and AI optimism, pricing the conflict back in is complicated by the fog of war still being very thick.
Prediction market Kalshi now gives only a 56 percent chance that Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August. Chevron’s CEO told the Milken Institute that even if the strait reopened tomorrow, normalisation would take months — seas must be cleared of mines, hundreds of stranded vessels need to exit the Gulf, and insurers need to feel genuinely comfortable before tankers resume regular routes.
Gold held near $4,560 per ounce as investors kept safe haven positions open, while Bitcoin retreated toward $81,000.
The market is not panicking. But it is not convinced the war is over either. Like this finance oriented article? Read our previous article here.
