China’s Official Manufacturing PMI Rose to 50.3 in June, Driven by AI-Linked High-Tech Exports While Domestic Demand Stays Sluggish
CNBC reports that China’s manufacturing activity picked up faster than expected in June, buoyed by strong demand for high-tech exports amid the global AI boom, with the official purchasing managers’ index edging up to 50.3, beating economists’ forecast of 50.1 and up from 50 in May, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
High-Tech Manufacturing Hit 53.5 While New Export Orders Returned to Expansion, Exposing a Widening Split Between AI-Linked and Traditional Factories
High-tech manufacturing posted a PMI of 53.5, well above the overall reading and firmly in expansion territory, highlighting a growing bifurcation in China’s industrial base; firms plugged into the global AI supply chain are thriving while traditional manufacturers tied to construction and domestic retail are not seeing the same tailwinds. The sub-index for new export orders returned to expansion in June, rising to 50.1 from 48.6, while the production and overall new orders gauges edged up to 51.4 and 51.2.
Capital Economics Warns the Recovery Remains Heavily Dependent on Exports and AI as Bank of America Upgrades China’s 2026 Export Growth Forecast to 15%
Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, said “the hope of rebalancing is dashing,” citing stronger exports and weaker domestic demand. Bank of America Global Research upgraded its forecast for China’s export growth this year to 15%, citing strong AI-related investment, global demand for renewable energy equipment, and electric vehicles.
A 50.3 reading is barely above the expansion line. But underneath it sits a 53.5 high-tech number doing all the heavy lifting and that gap is the real story.
Check out our previous coverage of China’s economy and global manufacturing here.
