Global Oil Demand Has Fallen Faster Than In Any Year Since The 2020 Pandemic Collapse With IEA Now Forecasting A 1 Million Barrel Per Day Decline In 2026
According to Yahoo Finance, the world has lost roughly 11.1 million barrels per day of oil supply since the US-Iran war began in late February 2026; approximately 10 percent of global demand. Global inventories have fallen to record lows. Houthis are targeting Red Sea shipping. Yet Brent crude crossed only $101 per barrel and WTI reached $92 on Thursday, both roughly $20 below their April and May wartime peaks.
JPMorgan strategists led by Natasha Kaneva say the answer is demand destruction. “Our initial expectation was that the burden of adjustment would fall overwhelmingly on inventories, with demand continuing to grow. Instead, the opposite happened,” they wrote.
The IEA now forecasts global oil demand will decline by 1 million barrels per day in 2026, up sharply from its May estimate of 420,000 barrels per day. Southeast Asian countries curtailed workweeks, European airlines slashed flights, and the US released record strategic reserves volumes. China rapidly cut imports. The demand collapse was so severe JPMorgan called it more than twice the demand loss seen during the Global Financial Crisis peak.
The oil market killed demand to keep itself alive. Nobody expected that to work this well. Check out our previous coverage of the US-Iran war on The Trusted Times.
