SBP Governor Declares Economy In Transition As Jameel Ahmad At Independence Day Flag-Hoisting Ceremony Cites 7.1% Inflation FY26, Projects 3.5-4.5% Growth FY27 And $44B Remittances. Experts Say 5-6% Minimum Needed. Recovery Still Remittance-Led Not Export-Led
According to The Express Tribune, State Bank of Pakistan Governor Jameel Ahmad used Pakistan’s 79th Independence Day flag-hoisting ceremony at SBP’s Karachi head office to declare the economy in transition from stabilisation to sustainable growth, citing GDP growth of 3.7% in FY26 and projecting 3.5–4.5% for FY27.
Ahmad highlighted average inflation of 7.1% in FY26 within the SBP’s 5–7% medium-term target alongside record remittances exceeding $41 billion, a low current account deficit and foreign exchange reserves of $18.4 billion at end-FY26, projected to exceed $21 billion in FY27.
Economists disagreed sharply. Speaking to Tribune on condition of anonymity, experts warned that Pakistan needs GDP growth of at least 5–6% to absorb the millions entering the job market annually.
A textile exporter noted that the recovery remains heavily reliant on overseas remittances rather than broad-based export or industrial expansion, raising concerns about sustainability. Meanwhile, headline inflation staying within target obscures persistent food and energy costs on lower-income households, while digital transaction growth has not yet broadened the tax base or formalised the informal economy.
The SBP says stabilisation is working. Economists say 3.7% is not enough. Both are correct and that is precisely the problem.
Check out our previous coverage of Pakistan’s economy on The Trusted Times.
