SpaceX: History Shows Mega-IPOs Above $50 Billion Deliver A Median One-Year Return Of Negative 31.9%
According to 24/7 Wall St., SpaceX debuted on the Nasdaq on June 12 with shares priced at $135, opened at $150, and finished its first trading day at $160.95, a gain of 19%, pushing the company’s market value above $2.1 trillion.
The IPO raised over $87 billion, including greenshoe options, at a $1.77 trillion valuation, making it the largest IPO ever completed. Demand reportedly exceeded available shares by roughly four times. Yet shares have fallen on each of the past three trading days.
SpaceX operates three major businesses: Starlink satellite internet, space launch services, and AI operations acquired through xAI. Starlink generated $11.4 billion in revenue during 2025 and produced roughly $4.4 billion in operating income, making it the company’s primary profit engine.
The problem is the price. SpaceX trades at over 100 times trailing revenue while reporting a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025, and mega-IPOs over $50 billion have historically delivered a median one-year return of negative 31.9%. SpaceX’s accelerated lockup structure also allows insider selling sooner than the traditional 180-day window, adding share-supply pressure to an already-stretched valuation.
The rocket reached orbit. Whether the stock can hold altitude is a different question entirely.
Check out our previous coverage of tech IPOs and market analysis here.
