As Stock Markets Continue To Set Fresh All-Time Highs On The AI Rally, Bitcoin’s Unusual Decoupling Has Traders On Kalshi Pricing An 80% Probability That BTC Falls Below $60,000. A New 2026 Low That Would Mark A 52% Collapse From Peak
According to CNBC, CoinDesk and CryptoBriefing, Bitcoin has crashed more than 51% from its all-time high of approximately $126,200 reached in October 2025, trading near $64,100 on June 4, 2026, down from an intraweek high of $72,840 and having already surrendered the $90,000, $80,000, and $70,000 support levels earlier in the year.
The most recent sell-off was catalysed by cryptocurrency treasury company Strategy’s first disclosed Bitcoin sale since 2020; just 32 BTC valued at approximately $2.47 million, a sale that was financially immaterial but symbolically devastating to market sentiment. The announcement triggered a broader institutional exit, with Bitcoin ETF outflows exceeding $3.2 billion within the week, $1.1 billion in leveraged position liquidations in a single 24-hour window, and a large Mt. Gox wallet transfer adding further selling pressure.
Three structural drivers underpin the decline: the ongoing US-Iran conflict creating a risk-off macro environment, Federal Reserve uncertainty around the pace of interest rate cuts driving dollar strength against risk assets, and Strategy’s apparent shift away from its long-held accumulation strategy. Global stock markets are simultaneously hitting fresh all-time highs on the AI rally; an unusual decoupling that suggests the current Bitcoin decline is not a broad risk-off event but a crypto-specific crisis of institutional confidence.
Traders on prediction market Kalshi are now pricing an approximately 80% probability that Bitcoin falls below $60,000, which would constitute a new 2026 low.
To check out our previous coverage on cryptocurrency markets and Bitcoin, read our articles here.
