From Brent’s 7% Slump On Monday To A 4% Rally On Tuesday And With CNN Reporting That Even A Best-Case Reopening Of Hormuz Could Push US Gas To $5 This Summer, The Path To Lower Prices Is Going To Be Bumpy
According to coverage by The New York Times and corroborated across Bloomberg, CNN Business, Trading Economics and Axios, Brent crude traded near $99 a barrel on Tuesday after rising almost 4% on Tuesday, with West Texas Intermediate around $93.
The rebound followed Brent’s 7% slump on Monday when markets first priced in framework-deal optimism. US forces hit missile launch sites and boats suspected of preparing to mine waters near the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed it fired at US aircraft including an F-35 that entered Iranian airspace.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said talks may take several more days. The proposed framework would extend the ceasefire by roughly two months, with Washington easing its blockade and Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The damage is already substantial.
According to CNN citing S&P Global Energy, more than 1.2 billion barrels of oil have been disrupted since the war began, and pre-war prices are unlikely to return soon. Analyst Bob McNally told CNN he expects Brent could return to $120 or even $130 a barrel, with US gas prices potentially hitting $5 this summer.
The verdict is structural. Even if the deal holds and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the global energy system has absorbed real damage. US shale producers have already raised 2026 capital spending plans by $490 million versus pre-war guidance, according to Enverus.
Demand is climbing into summer driving season. The math of tighter supply meeting rising demand cannot be undone by a press release. Markets are pricing optimism on the deal but realism on the timeline.
To check out our previous coverage on the US-Iran conflict and global energy markets, read our articles here.
