Wheat Crop at Risk as Pakistan Faces 25% Water Deficit Heading Into Rabi Season 2026
Pakistan is heading into the Rabi agricultural season with a projected 25% water shortage, as reservoir carryover levels have fallen to their lowest point since 2021. With the season commencing October 1, 2026, available water stands at approximately 9.5 million acre feet (MAF); compared to 13 MAF at the same stage last year, a drop of nearly 27%. Dawn News
Rabi crops require an estimated 37–38 MAF, but only 21–22 MAF is anticipated from combined storage and river flows, leaving a significant and potentially damaging deficit. Wheat; Pakistan’s most critical staple, is the primary crop at risk, alongside gram, lentils, barley, mustard, and rapeseed.
The shortfall compounds an already fragile food security situation. The previous season produced only 27.5 million tonnes of wheat against a target of 29.7 million tonnes, forcing Pakistan to import one million tonnes to cover the gap.
Provincial tensions are also expected to resurface, as the three-tier water distribution formula will apportion the shortage primarily between Punjab and Sindh. Informed sources have revealed that over one million acre feet of avoidable water releases were made from reservoirs during the Kharif season due to political considerations; a decision now bearing serious consequences.
The Indus River System Authority’s technical committee is scheduled to meet September 28 to finalise water allocation for the season. Read our previous article here.
