GDP Growth Target: Rs15.5 Trillion In Tax Collection, A 2 Percent Primary Surplus And $42 Billion In Remittances. The Targets Are Ambitious. The IMF Thinks They Are Too Ambitious.
According to Dawn, Pakistan’s Ministry of Finance has projected real GDP growth at 4.1 percent for fiscal year 2026-27, while the International Monetary Fund has maintained a more conservative estimate of 3.5 percent.
The budget framework, finalised in broad agreement with the IMF, targets tax collection of over Rs15.5 trillion for the new GDP growth target; up from Rs14.131 trillion in the current fiscal year alongside a primary surplus of 2 percent of GDP, equivalent to approximately Rs2.9 trillion. Average inflation based on the Consumer Price Index is projected at 8.6 percent, slightly above the IMF’s 8.4 percent forecast.
On the external account, remittances are expected to exceed $42 billion, the current account deficit is projected at around $4 billion; under 1 percent of GDP while imports are estimated to reach $70 billion. Provinces have been directed to raise combined revenue by approximately 40 percent, targeting Rs400 billion from sectors including agriculture and the informal economy.
Independent economists, however, have warned that inflation could rise to nearly 11 percent if fuel cost pressures persist.
To check out our previous coverage on Pakistan’s economy and finance, read our articles here.
