Rubio Says There Are “Good Signs”. The Ceasefire Has Held Since April 8. Trump Has Set Deadlines, Lifted Them And Set New Ones. The Naval Blockade Remains. And Friday’s NATO Meeting In Sweden Is Discussing What Role The Alliance Could Play After The War Ends.
According to The Washington Times, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday May 22 there was “slight progress” during talks with Iran, amid uncertainty as to whether a deal will be reached or war will resume. He spoke days after US President Donald Trump said he was holding off on a military strike on Iran because “serious negotiations” were underway.
On Thursday, Rubio had gone further, telling reporters there were “good signs” that an agreement to end the conflict was in sight, but warned any such deal would be “unfeasible” if Iran pursued measures to permanently control shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. “No one in the world is in favour of a tolling system. It can’t happen and it would be unacceptable,” he said.
The tolling question emerged after reports that Iran and Oman had been in discussions about building a joint payment system to control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump rejected the initiative outright on Thursday, saying his administration had “total control” of the waterway. “We want it open. We want it free. We don’t want tolls. It’s international. It’s an international waterway,” the president told reporters.
Rubio spoke ahead of a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Helsingborg, Sweden, where the military alliance is expected to discuss what role it could play in helping police the Strait of Hormuz once the war is over.
The inclusion of NATO in discussions about post-war Hormuz arrangements is a new development; it signals that the US is thinking beyond bilateral negotiations with Tehran toward a multilateral maritime security framework that would render any future Iranian attempt to close or toll the strait institutionally more difficult.
Trump has been threatening for weeks that the ceasefire reached in mid-April could end if Iran does not make a deal, with shifting parameters for striking such an agreement. He has previously indicated he would hold off on military action to allow talks to continue; only to turn around and launch strikes.
The two core sticking points that have prevented a deal from being signed remain unchanged. The first is the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has kept the waterway effectively closed since the war began on February 28 with Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The strait carries roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply, and its closure has kept energy prices elevated, rattled global shipping and contributed to inflationary pressures across every major economy.
The US has maintained a naval blockade of Iranian ports in parallel. Iran wants permanent management rights over Hormuz as part of any peace agreement. The US says that is categorically unacceptable.
That is not a gap that can be bridged with careful diplomatic language. It is a structural disagreement about sovereignty over an international waterway.
The second issue is Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile. Issues under discussion include Iran’s nuclear and ballistic programme, with talks mediated by Pakistan covering freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, reconstruction and sanctions, and a long-term peace agreement.
Iran has consistently insisted on its right to enrich uranium. The US and Israel have consistently insisted that enrichment must stop and existing stockpiles must be surrendered or verifiably neutralised. The two positions are not close even if Rubio indicates otherwise.
In recent weeks there have been repeated claims of progress, yet a deal has not been reached. Trump has repeatedly set deadlines for Tehran and then backed off. The pattern of the entire negotiation since April 8 has been one of conditional optimism followed by recalibration.
Pakistan’s mediation has kept the framework alive. But the ceasefire itself has been violated by both sides on multiple occasions, and the naval blockade has never lifted. Rubio’s signal should be therefore taken with cautious optimism.
Friday’s signals from Rubio; “slight progress” rather than “good signs” represent a small but detectable downgrade in the diplomatic temperature from Thursday. That shift in language, across 24 hours, from Rubio, may be the most accurate read available of where the deal actually stands.
To check out our previous coverage on Iran, Pakistan and the US ceasefire, read our articles here.
