OPEC+ Agrees 188,000 bpd September Output Increase Then Pauses: Seven Core Members Complete Phased Rollback Of 2023 Supply Cut While Leaving 2 Million Bpd Of Deeper Cuts In Place Through Year-End For Capacity Review Ahead Of 2027 Baselines
According to Reuters, OPEC+ has agreed in principle to raise oil output targets by approximately 188,000 barrels per day from September 2026 and then pause further increases for the rest of the year, completing the unwinding of voluntary cuts originally agreed in 2023.
The seven core members; Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman, have been raising monthly production quotas for most of this year. Those increases have remained largely on paper, however, as the Iran and Ukraine wars disrupted actual exports from the Gulf, Russia and Kazakhstan.
The September increase completes a phased rollback of a 1.65 million bpd supply cut originally agreed in 2023, when the group still included the UAE, which left OPEC in May 2026. After September, OPEC+ will pause further hikes through Q4, leaving roughly 2 million bpd of deeper cuts dating from 2022 intact while it conducts a production capacity review to set 2027 output baselines.
Some members, including Iraq, are pushing for higher individual quotas to reflect increased production capacity. The talks over 2027 baselines are expected to be difficult.
OPEC+ is raising output quotas in a world where quotas and reality have rarely matched. The September increase is largely symbolic — the Iran war made it so.
Check out our previous coverage of global energy on The Trusted Times.
